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Kevin D. Hoover
- Professor
- Philosophy
- 203-D West Duke Building
- Campus Box 90097
- Phone: +1 919.660.2425 or +1 919.660.1876
- Fax: 919.660.3060
- Office Hours: No office hours Fall 2006 semester.
- Homepage
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Other
Research Interests Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics;
Philosophy and Methodology of Empirical Economics;
History of Economic Thought. Current Research: The structure of vector autoregression models; causality in macroeconomics, specification search methodologies; the history of 20th century macroeconomics. Teaching Interests: Macroeconomics
Monetary Economics
History of Economic Thought
Methodology Professional Affiliations: Associate Editor, Journal of Economic Methodology
Editor, Journal of Economic Methodology (1996-2005)
Associate Editor, Journal of Economic Surveys
Editorial Board, Economics and Philosophy
Board of Editors, Review of Political Economy
Board of Editors, American Economic Review (1990-1994)
President, History of Economics Society (2002-2003)
Chairman, International Network for Economic Method (1999-2001)
International Network for Economic Method (Founding Member)
American Economics Association
History of Economics Society
British Society for the Philosophy of Science -
Specialties
- History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
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Research Description
Professor Hoover's research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics, the history of economics, and the philosophy and methodology of empirical economics. His recent work in economics has focused on the application of causal search methodologies for structural vector autoregression, the history of microfoundational programs in macroeconomics, and Roy Harrod's early work on dynamic macroeconomics. In philosophy, he has concentrated on issues related to causality, especially in economics, and on reductionism -- the philosophical counterpart to microfoundations. Recently published papers include: He has conducted studies to investigate the history of twentieth century macroeconomics, the structure of vector auto-regression models, and causality in macroeconomics examined via specification search methodologies. Recent working papers include: “Still Puzzling: Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression,” “Was Harrod Right?” "Identity, Structure, and Causal Representation in Scientific Models." -
Recent Publications
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- "“Still Puzzling: Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression”."
- Empirical Economics
- (Accepted, December, 2012)
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Publication Description
The price puzzle, an increase in the price level associated with a contractionary monetary shock, is investigated in a rich, 12-variable SVAR in which various factors that have been mooted as solutions are considered jointly. SVARs for the pre-1980 and post-1990 periods are identified empirically using a graph-theoretic causal search algorithm combined with formal tests of the implied overidentifying restrictions. In this SVAR, the pre-1980 price puzzle depends on the characterization of monetary policy, and the post-1990 price puzzle is statistically insignificant. Commonly suggested theoretical resolutions to the price puzzle are shown to have causal implications inconsistent with the data.
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- Applied Intermediate Macroeconomics.
- Cambridge University Press,
- 2012.
Publication Description
An intermediate macroeconomics textbook that stresses using real-world data and elementary statistics to understand the economy.
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- "“Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2”."
- The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry.
- Ed. Jennifer Castle & Neil Shephard.
- Oxford University Press,
- 2012.
- 37-58.
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- ""Identity, Structure, and Causal Representation in Scientific Models"."
- Towards the Methodological Turn in the Philosophy of Science: Mechanism and Causality in Biology and Economics..
- Ed. Hsiang-Ke Chao, Szu-Ting Chen, and Roberta Millstein.
- Springer,
- 2012.
Publication Description
Recent debates over the nature causation, casual inference, and the uses of causal models in counterfactual analysis, involving inter alia Nancy Cartwright (Hunting Causes and Using Them), James Woodward (Making Things Happen) and Judea Pearl (Causation) hinge on how causality is represented in models. Economists’ indigenous approach to causal representation goes back to the work of Herbert Simon with the Cowles Commission in the early 1950s. The paper explicates a scheme for the representation of causal structure, inspired by Simon and shows how this representation sheds light on some important debates in the philosophy of causation. This structural account is compared to Woodward’s manipulability account. It is used to evaluate the recent debates – particularly, with respect to the nature of causal structure, the identity of causes, causal independence, and modularity. Special attention is given to modeling issues that arise in empirical economics.
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- ""Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect: A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace"."
- Macroeconomic Dynamics
- (Accepted, 2012)
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Publication Description
The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth’s “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including: its history, starting with Muth’s work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future.
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PhD Students
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Francois Claveau
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